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By Martin Hutchinson
Contributing Editor
Money Morning/The Money Map Report

The U.S. Treasury Department announced Nov. 3 that it intended to borrow a record $550 billion in the fourth quarter. That represents a staggering $408 billion increase over Treasury’s borrowing estimate from early August and includes $260 billion for the recapitalization of U.S. banks.

Do not make an error about it: there will be many enough American Exchequer bonds to choke on as the government tries to finance this debt.

In the three months to Sept. 30, the Treasury Department borrowed $530 billion; in the first quarter of the New Year – which ends March 31 – it expects to borrow $368 billion. The March figure looks thoroughly optimistic; the monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays shows that the first calendar quarter of the year is generally about $80 billion to $100 billion worse than the preceding fourth quarter. Thus the loan number is so low as 368 billion $, apparently, would not include expenses of ejection and any additional expenses specifying in recession from a current quarter.

If I should assume, I would assume, that loan would make approximately 500 billion $ in the first quarter even if the American bank system manages to tell vertically for all quarter - something, that it is not confident at all.

Interestingly, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) appears to agree with this. Goldman –formerly the country’s largest investment banker – said last week that in the year to September 2009 the Treasury would have to borrow about $2 trillion. That would suggest a rate of about $500 billion per quarter. That figure, too, is based on a belief that the recession remains fairly shallow, and that the new administration doesn’t have to add any major new stimulus programs – both pretty optimistic assumptions.

Goldman estimates, that the Ministry of Finance will revive the three-year problems of the T-note, will accelerate release of two-year-old notes and 10-year-old bonds, and "again will open" last Exchequer problems, which are now "from run" (that is have a maturity which is not round number of years), thus adding to delivery of nine-year Exchequers, for example.

While the gross issuance of Treasury securities has to be netted against redemptions to calculate the net increase in Treasury borrowing, $2 trillion is a lot, and net of redemptions represents about $1.4 trillion in new money. That is unlikely to come from foreign central banks, the principal source of Treasury funding in the last few years. Net foreign purchases of U.S. securities in the 12 months to August 2008 totaled $543 billion, and it was about the same in the previous year. That means $800 billion to $900 billion of new money for Treasury purchases has to come from domestic sources.

Inevitably $800 billion to $900 billion of additional money flowing from domestic investors into Treasury bonds will do three things:

It is offered by those overcoming the conclusion: do not eat food which uncle Sam tries to fill you in such extensive quantities, except a short-term maturity, if you very much wish to eat (have the cash which is burning down an aperture in your bank account). If exchequer crops raise, the prices will go down, especially in the long end of a spectrum of a maturity. Besides, increasing inflation does bonds of the motionless interest rate by the bad rate.

If you’re really dying to own paper issued by the U.S. government, you should look at Treasury Inflation Proofed Securities (TIPS) on which interest and principal are indexed to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). These were a lousy deal earlier in the year, but yields have since risen. Now, you can get a yield higher than 3%, plus inflation protection on 10-year or 30-year TIPS. Indeed, at the 10-year maturity, TIPS yield 3.04%, whereas regular Treasuries yield 3.90%, indicating that the market thinks inflation will average only 0.86% annually over the next decade.

If the market thinks that, it’s nuts. If inflation averages 7.3% over the next decade, as it did in the 1970s, a TIPS purchase will yield about 10.3% in nominal terms, about as good as you will find anywhere and far above conventional Treasury yields.

Thus, inflation-linked Treasuries are currently a much better bet than conventional Treasuries, and well worth taking a look at. You might also consider the Rydex Rydex Inverse Gov Long Bond Strategy (Juno) Fund (RYJUX), which invests in a portfolio of short positions in Treasury bond futures and will therefore rise in value as T-bond prices decline.

The U.S. Treasury may want you to gorge on its offerings, but in this case a strict diet is the best policy.